The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy of 2004

Steven F. Freeman, PhD
stfreema@sas.upenn.edu

Most Americans who had listened to radio or surfed the Internet on Election Day this year, sat down to watch election night coverage expecting that John Kerry had been elected President. Exit polls showed him ahead in nearly every battleground state, in many cases by sizable margins. Although pre-election day polls indicated the race dead even or Bush slightly ahead, two factors seemed to explain Kerry’s edge: turnout was extraordinary high, which is generally good for Democrats 1, and as in every US Presidential election with an incumbent over the past quartercentury 2, undecided voters broke heavily toward the challenger. →